Unpacked: The UFC Welterweight Division (Part 1)

It's August 25th, 2022, T+5 days from perhaps the most unbelievable moment that I've seen in the UFC and perhaps in all of sports (with the New England Patriots' 2017 super bowl comeback it's only competitor). 5 days later and I'm still trying to wrap my head around what happened in Salt Lake City. As much as I'd like to cook up a hot take on what the results of Leon Edward's 5th round KO victory over defending champ and no. 1 pound for pound Kamaru Usman at UFC 278, this blind-sided me. Generally, I try to never count anyone out. I've learned that lesson too many times when watching the UFC, from Pena's win over Nunes or Poirier's win over McGregor. However, despite trying to catch myself, I now realize that I spent most of the last week leading up to the fight contemplating whos next for Usman when he wins, and not so much Edwards. Therefore, I have some mere rough ideas on where the welterweight division should go next following this result. They undoubtedly need "time to marinade", however, I'm eager to share them nonetheless.

Fight 1: Usman vs Edwards II

I feel like an ass for stating the obvious. Clearly Usman will get the chance to reclaim his belt as soon as healthy, and honestly, who's complaining? If his resume says anything, he deserves it. Not to mention, he was about a minute away from beating Edwards in a decision. This fight takes nothing away from Usman's stock. Following Edward's viscous knockout, Usman might not be able to return until spring at the earliest, but the rematch is worth waiting on.

Fight 2: Colby vs Chimaev

This fight is dependent on Chimaev beating Nate Diaz on September 10th. Like Usman vs Edwards I, I might be making the mistake of prematurely assuming Chimaev will win, but for the sake of the post, I'm including it anyways. This is simply the fight to make and I'm sure is a dream of many UFC fans alike. It would be the ultimate test for Chimaev. While Chimaev will have his usual size and strength advantage over Colby, Colby is perhaps the toughest wrestler to deal with in the UFC that isn't from Dagestan or Chechnya. Colby has a unique style of portraying his art in the way that his objective is to drain his opponent when wrestling. Colby excels at finding and maintaining dominant positions, and he uses his position to drain his opponent's gas tank. This would be an excellent test for Chimaev. Colby can be the first guy to really drag Chimaev into deep water and would say a lot about Chimaev's cardio. Additionally, I think the stand-up game is pretty evenly matched. Colby doesn't extrude the same power that Chimaev does, but Colby's cardio advantage benefits him in his striking, as well as his wrestling.

Fight 3: Burns vs Masvidal

Anyone who's been on twitter lately has probably seen this fight is potentially brewing in the pipeline. From what I’ve seen it has looked like Burns is the one seeking this fight out, which makes sense. Masvidal is no McGregor but he’s a clear money fight and perhaps the next best thing in that regard. While Masvidal has been fighting guys at the top of the food chain for a while now, he’s coming off of 3 losses in a row. He survived against Usman in their first fight, which is ok for short notice. But then he took the brutal knockout in the second fight, and did not look the same when he fought Colby. While I don’t count Masvidal out of being in title shot contention again, I think the trend he’s been on lately shows partially why Burns feels confident and wants this fight, partnered with the money he’d make from fighting a name like Masvidal. That being said, Burns has quite a bit to lose here if things don’t go his way, as he’s clearly among the top 4 welterweights right now. Stylistically, I think Burns has the advantage, mainly because of his diverse toolbox. While I think Masvidal might be a more technical striker, Burns is a powerful striker who is also fast and precise and should not be taken lightly. The real difference comes on the ground, however, with Burns being a far more proficient grappler than Masvidal. Overall, I think this fight will do a good job at pushing one of these two fighters back on track and in contention again.

Fight 4: Brady vs Muhammad

I know this fight is already scheduled, and it should be a good one. For starters, Belal is a guy who gets a bad wrap for being fighting with a "boring" style and I think many can't differentiate this from being unskilled or overrated. The reality is that Belal has been running thru quality opponents on the back of his wrestling abilities. While he might not be a machine for finishes, the win streak he's currently on (not including his NC against Edwards) has over quality guys such as Luque, Thompson and Maia. While his current win streak of 7 consists of 6 decision wins and a sub, this is nothing that we haven't seen in some popular ufc fighters, such as Colby Covington or Rafael Dos Anjos. And nonetheless I think this is no reason to count him out against Brady. Being from the Philly area I have a personal bias towards Sean Brady, I'd like to see him in the title picture sooner than later and snapping Belal's win streak could easily get him there. Stylistically, I think both of these fighters are pretty evenly matched when considering their strengths and weaknesses. Both are wrestlers who demonstrate an objective of obtaining dominant positions and keeping them, racking up control time. When compared to Belal, Brady is a much larger finishing threat when considering his black belt in BJJ under Daniel Gracie and he has showed how he can use it during his submission wins over Jake Matthews and Christain Aguilera. Therefore I'd say Brady has slightly more in his arsenal and has showed more ways that the fight can go his way, but Belal is just as dominant of a wrestler, if not more so.

Obviously there is so much more to cover with the welterweight division, I'll drop part 2 and possibly a part 3 with matchups for the rest of the welterweight ranked fighters soon. Peace.

-Unknown